Overall Approach

Population shifts, the effects of municipal amalgamations, and the establishment of new electoral districts have required substantial adjustment to the boundaries of existing electoral districts.

Many municipal amalgamations have occurred since the 1991 census. The Commission has tried as much as reasonably possible to respect the boundaries of those municipalities whose populations are consistent with the provincial quotient. Yet although the Commission prefers to retain the current electoral boundaries where possible, it cannot always accomplish this. No one electoral district can be considered in isolation. Any change to one boundary has an inherent effect on at least one adjoining electoral district.

Proposals for an electoral district are not acceptable merely on the basis that they are within the allowable 25 per cent variance from the quotient. The overarching consideration in the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act is that the population of each electoral district in the province be as close to the provincial quotient as is reasonably possible. If an electoral district contains a population that is significantly larger than the quotient it is underrepresented. Similarly, an electoral district with a significantly smaller population is overrepresented. It is virtually impossible to establish an electoral map for 106 electoral districts that reflects existing municipalities and recognizes the distinctions between urban and rural communities if electoral districts uniformly challenge the upper or lower limits of the provincial quotient.

The primary trends in population patterns in the past decade have been an increase in southern Ontario, especially in the Greater Toronto Area outside the City of Toronto, and an absolute decrease in Northern Ontario. Currently, 20 electoral districts exceed the allowable 25 per cent variance from the quotient. Ten electoral districts have populations that are smaller than the allowable variance from the quotient and 10 electoral districts have populations in excess of the maximum allowable variance from the quotient. These electoral districts vary in size from 69,901 (Timiskaming–Cochrane, which is substantially overrepresented at 35.06 per cent below the provincial quotient) to 189,934 (Brampton West–Mississauga, which is seriously underrepresented at 76.45 per cent above the quotient).

The Commission proposes, because of population shifts, to remove one electoral district from each of Northern Ontario and the Hamilton-Niagara region. The removal of these two electoral districts, in addition to the allocation of three new electoral districts for Ontario, results in the need to establish five new electoral districts. The Commission proposes that these new electoral districts be established in the suburban area outside the City of Toronto.

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