Census update and information – CEO Appearance on the 44th General Election before the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs

Key Messages

The CEO does not have any discretionary authority regarding the use of July 1 population estimates for calculating seats during the redistribution process.
The CEO is not required to explain the gap between the July 1 population estimates and the population figures from the decennial census. This is Statistics Canada's responsibility.

Quarterly (January 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1), Statistics Canada publishes population estimates for Canada and the provinces.
These demographic estimates are based on a wide set of federal and provincial administrative data sources and consider births, deaths, immigration, emigration and interprovincial migration.
Wayne Smith, Canada's Chief Statistician from 2010 to 2016, appeared before PROC on November 17, 2011, as part of the review of Bill C-20, the Fair Representation Act. According to Mr. Smith, population estimates are more accurate, as they compensate for the undercounting (generally 2% to 3%) in a population census.
In December 2011, the Fair Representation Act (la "Loi sur la representation équitable") changed the data source used for calculating House of Commons seats. The July 1 population estimate from the decennial census is now used in this calculation instead of the population figures from the decennial census, as was previously the case.
The July 1, 2021 population estimates were published by Statistics Canada on September 29, 2021. The CEO calculated seats according to the formula set out in section 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867 and published the results in the Canada Gazette on October 15, 2021.
The CEO has no discretionary authority regarding how the formula for calculating seats is applied or how population estimates are used in this calculation.

Each commission calculates the electoral quotient (population of the province divided by the number of seats) from these figures. This electoral quotient represents the population figure that each electoral district will reach when electoral boundaries are readjusted.
The commissions use census data to establish subprovincial population distribution (by administrative region, municipality, sector and census block).
The commissions do not receive any guidelines from the CEO on whether census undercounting (including that involving First Nations reserves) should be considered.
Statistics Canada published population figures from the May 2021 census on February 9, 2022. In accordance with section 13(2) of the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act (EBRA), the Chief Statistician sent a copy of the return showing the population of each of the provinces and electoral districts to the CEO, who then forwarded it to each of the ten commissions.
The detailed population distribution data is integrated into the Commission Redistricting Tool developed by EC and will be available to the commissions via their electoral geography technicians the week of February 14, 2022.

The July 1, 2021, estimate is 3.37% higher than the May 2021 census population for all 10 provinces, which amounts to 1,244,394 people. At the provincial level, the gap varies from 1.21% (Quebec) to 6.47% (P.E.I.). In 2011, the gap between the July 1 estimate and the census for the total population of the 10 provinces was slightly lower (3.00%).
In 2011, the calculation of seats with July 1 population estimates after the Fair Representation Act was adopted did not raise any significant concerns.
The chart on the next page shows the gaps between July 1 population estimates and the decennial census for the years 2011 and 2021.