Survey of Electors Following the February 25, 2019, By-elections in Outremont (Quebec), York–Simcoe (Ontario) and Burnaby South (British Columbia)
Detailed Findings
Awareness of the By-election and Voter Information
Widespread Awareness of February 25, 2019, Federal By-election
A total of 95% of electors surveyed said they were aware that a federal by-election took place on February 25, 2019, in their riding.
Awareness of the by-election was higher among:
- Residents of Burnaby South (99%) and Outremont (97%) compared to residents of York–Simcoe (90%).
- Electors aged 55 and older (98%) compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (89%).
- Retired electors (98%) compared to employed electors (94%).
- Electors who voted in the 2015 federal general election (98%) compared to those who did not vote (73%).
Moderate Recall of Elections Canada Advertising
A split sample was used to test electors' recall of Elections Canada advertisements for the February 25, 2019, federal by-election. One subset of respondents (n = 574) was asked whether they recalled any advertising or communications from Elections Canada about how, when and where to vote, a standard question used in previous post-electoral phone surveys. The other subset (n = 628) was asked whether they recalled any advertising or communications from Elections Canada on social media, when browsing or on a mobile application, on radio, in a local newspaper or in any other format. Respondents who indicated they had seen or heard something about how, when and where to vote through at least one source were coded as having recalled Elections Canada advertising or communications.
In both samples, a majority of electors recalled advertisements (54% and 76%, respectively). However, the second formulation resulted in a higher proportion of respondents expressing recall.
The likelihoodFootnote 1 of recalling any advertising or communications from Elections Canada was higher among:
- Residents of Burnaby South (73%) compared to residents of York–Simcoe (66%) and Outremont (56%).
- Students (71%), retired electors (70%) and employed electors (65%) compared to unemployed electors (41%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (69%) compared to those who did not vote (59%).
- Those who felt informed about how, when and where to vote in the by-election (68%) compared to those who did not (32%).
Elections Canada Householder, Newspaper and Voter Information Card Were Main Sources of Recall
The subset of respondents from the first split sample who recalled advertising or communications from Elections Canada (n = 302) were asked where they saw, heard or read about the February 25, 2019, by-election. These electors mostly recalled the following kinds of advertising or communications from Elections Canada:
- Elections Canada householder (29%)
- Newspaper (24%)
- VIC (24%)
One in five (21%) mentioned political advertising by candidates or parties, while smaller numbers pointed to radio (16%), Facebook (14%) or websites other than Elections Canada (13%). Other sources were identified infrequently (3% or less) and included word of mouth, YouTube, the Elections Canada website, Instagram and Twitter.
As was the case with previous by-election surveys, a number of respondents (25%) said they recalled seeing Elections Canada ads on television when there were no such ads during the by-election. This could be due to several factors, including confusion with other electoral communications, such as partisan advertising or news reports about the by-election in the ridings.
The second subset of respondents (n = 628) was asked about specific information sources. These electors were most likely to recall advertising from Elections Canada in a local newspaper (33%) or on the radio (31%). Following this, approximately one-quarter each recalled advertising on social media (24%) or when they were browsing or on a mobile application (24%).
There were no significant differences by riding in the likelihood of recalling Elections Canada advertising and communications through these sources. However, residents of Outremont were more likely than residents of the other ridings to report not having seen or heard anything about the by-election.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Women (28%) were more likely than men (19%) to say they recalled advertising from Elections Canada on where, when and how to vote through social media.
- Those who completed university (31%) were more likely than those who completed college or some post-secondary education (16%) to have learned about the by-election from their VIC. Those who completed high school or less were more likely to have encountered advertising from Elections Canada on Facebook (24% versus 8% of those with a college degree or some post-secondary education) and in a local newspaper (43% versus 30% of university graduates).
Age-related differences include the following:
- Electors aged 55+ (32%) and aged 35 to 54 (30%) were more likely to have read about the by-election in a newspaper compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (4%).
- Electors aged 25 to 34 (40%) and aged 55+ (35%) were more likely than 18-to-24-year-olds (13%) to have heard about the by-election through the Elections Canada householder.
- Those aged 35 to 54 (35%) were more likely to have learned about the by-election from their VIC compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (13%).
- Electors aged 18 to 24 (52%) were most likely to have seen or heard about the by-election on social media (versus 15% of electors aged 55+, 21% of those aged 35 to 54, and 27% of those aged 25 to 34). They were also most likely to have encountered advertising or communications from Elections Canada when browsing on a mobile device (42% versus 17% of electors aged 55+ and 22% of electors 35 to 54).
Very Strong Majority Felt Informed about How, When and Where to Vote
The vast majority (92%) of respondents aware of the by-election felt informed about how, when and where to vote for the February 25, 2019, federal by-election, with nearly three-quarters (73%) saying they felt very informed.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Residents of Outremont (9%) were more likely to feel uninformed compared to residents of Burnaby South (4%).
- Compared to retired electors (4%), employed electors (7%) were more likely to feel uninformed.
- Those who never or sometimes have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (93%) were more likely to feel informed about how, when and where to vote than electors with a functional disability (i.e., those who often or always have to limit daily activities) (85%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (97%), those who voted in the 2015 federal general election (95%) and those who received their VIC (95%) were more likely to feel informed about the by-election than those who did not vote in it (83%) or in the 2015 general election (71%) and those who did not receive their VIC (62%).
In addition, the following respondents were more likely to feel very informed:
- Electors aged 55+ (82%) compared to those between the ages of 18 and 24 (55%) and 35 and 54 (71%).
- Electors who completed university (79%) compared to those who completed college or some university (70%) and high school or less (67%).
Few Used the Elections Canada Website, but Those Who Did Were Satisfied with the Information
A total of 12% of electors aware of the by-election said they visited the Elections Canada website during the campaign. Of those who visited the website, most (86%) were satisfied with the information it provided, with nearly half (49%) saying they were very satisfied.
The likelihood of visiting the Elections Canada website during the campaign was higher among:
- Younger electors (21% of 18-to-24-year-olds, 14% of 25-to-34-year-olds and 13% of 35-to-54-year-olds) compared to electors aged 55+ (6%).
- Students (28%) compared to employed electors (12%) and retired electors (6%).
- Those aware of the federal by-election (13%) versus those who were not (3%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (16%) compared to those who did not (5%).
- Those who did not receive their VIC (25%) compared to those who did (12%).
Very Few Contacted Elections Canada, but Many of Those Who Did Were Satisfied with the Information
Very few (4%) of the electors aware of the by-election said they contacted Elections Canada during the campaign. Many (77%) of those who did were satisfied with the information they received, including 67% who were very satisfied.
There were no significant differences by riding when it came to contacting Elections Canada during the campaign.
Voter Information Card and Registration
Nine in 10 Received a Voter Information Card
Approximately 9 in 10 (89%) of those who were aware of the federal by-election said they received their VIC.
The following groups of electors were more likely to say they received a VIC:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (91%) and Burnaby South (91%) compared to residents of Outremont (85%).
- Electors aged 55+ (94%), aged 35 to 54 (93%) and aged 25 to 34 (90%) compared to electors between 18 and 24 years of age (68%).
- Electors who completed university (91%) compared to those with high school or less education (84%).
- Retired electors (94%) compared to employed electors (89%) and electors attending school (76%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (94%) compared to those who did not (79%).
- Those who felt informed (92%) compared to those who felt uninformed (51%) about how, when and where to vote in the by-election.
Nearly all electors who received a VIC reported it had the correct name (97%) and address (99%).
The following groups of electors were more likely to say their VIC had the correct name:
- Residents of Burnaby South (98%) compared to residents of Outremont (95%).
- Electors aged 55+ (98%) compared to electors aged 35 to 54 (95%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (98%) versus those who did not vote (93%).
- Electors who felt informed about how, when and where to vote (97%) compared to those who felt uninformed (81%).
Nine in 10 Brought Their Voter Information Card to Vote
Nine in 10 electors (90%) who voted at an Elections Canada office, advance poll or polling station on election day said they brought their VIC with them.
The following groups of electors were more likely to have brought their VIC to the polling station:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (93%) compared to residents of Outremont (86%).
- Electors aged 55+ (93%) compared to electors aged 35 to 54 (86%).
- Retired electors (95%) compared to employed electors (89%) and students (74%).
Two-Thirds of Electors Who Did Not Receive a Voter Information Card Did Nothing to Find Out Whether Registered
Two-thirds (64%) of electors who did not receive a VIC during the campaign did nothing to find out whether they were registered to vote in the federal by-election. Most people who took action to find out whether they were registered did so by calling the 1-800 Elections Canada phone number (8%), consulting the Elections Canada website (7%) or finding out at the polling station or an Elections Canada office (7%). Very few took other steps.
There were no significant differences by riding.
Three-Quarters of Electors Knew They Need to Be Registered to Vote
Three-quarters of electors (76%) said they knew that they need to be registered in order to vote in a Canadian federal election. Another 15% said they did not need to be registered, and 9% were unsure.
The likelihood of knowing that electors need to be registered on the list of electors to vote in a Canadian federal election was higher among:
- Residents of Outremont (91%) compared to residents of Burnaby South (71%) and York–Simcoe (67%).
- Electors aged 55+ (80%) compared to electors between the ages of 35 and 54 (70%).
- Retired electors (80%) compared to employed electors (74%).
- Electors who felt informed about how, when and where to vote (78%) compared to those who felt uninformed (59%).
The following groups of electors were more likely to say they did not know whether electors need to be registered:
- Those who did not vote in the 2015 federal general election (23%) compared to those who did vote (7%).
- Those who did not vote in the by-election (13%) compared to those who did vote (5%).
In addition, electors who completed university were more likely to incorrectly answer "No" to this question (18%) compared to electors with some post-secondary education or who completed college (11%).
Six in 10 Were Aware They Can Register at Polling Station and Vote Immediately
A total of 6 in 10 (61%) were aware that electors can register at the polling station and then vote immediately afterwards. In contrast, 18% were not aware that this is possible, and one in five (21%) said they did not know one way or the other.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Residents of Outremont (49%) were less likely than residents of Burnaby South (69%) and York–Simcoe (65%) to be aware that electors can register at the polling station and vote immediately.
- Those between the ages of 35 and 54 (69%) were more likely to be aware that electors can register at the polling station and vote immediately compared to electors aged 55+ (60%).
- Retired electors (27%) were more likely to report not knowing whether an elector can register at the polling station and vote immediately compared to employed (19%) and unemployed (10%) electors and to students (15%).
- Electors with a functional disability (31%) were more likely to not know whether an elector can register at the polling station and vote immediately compared to electors who do not have a functional disability (19%).
- Those who did not vote in the 2015 federal general election were more likely to incorrectly answer "No" (31%) than those who did vote (16%).
Majority of Electors Were Aware of Online Voter Registration Service
A split sample was used to test awareness of online voter registration.Footnote 2 Half the respondents (n = 600) were asked whether electors could use an "online voter registration service on Elections Canada's website," a question previously used in post-electoral phone surveys. As this question has always yielded a high proportion of "Don't know" responses from electors, a simplified formulation was developed and asked of the other half (n = 602) of the sample (see precise wording of questions in the graph below).
While a majority of electors expressed awareness of this option regardless of the formulation of the question, the size of the majority varied. As the graph below indicates, a small majority (54%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge could electors use an online voter registration service on Elections Canada's website to check, update or complete their voter registration during the last by-election?" By contrast, two-thirds (66%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website?"
The results of this split-sample test confirm that the second formulation of the question is easier to understand as it resulted in a smaller proportion of respondents who indicated they did not know.
Regardless of question formulation:Footnote 3
- Residents of Outremont (68%) were more likely than residents of Burnaby South (52%) to say that electors could use an online voter registration service.
- Electors aged 55+ (46%) were more likely to say they did not know the answer to this question compared to younger electors: those aged 18 to 24 (19%) and 25 to 34 (23%).
- Retired electors (43%) were more likely to say they did not know the answer to this question compared to employed electors (34%) and electors attending school (13%).
- Electors with a functional disability (52%) were more likely to say they did not know the answer to this question compared to electors who sometimes or never have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (33%).
Voting and Voter Participation
Two-Thirds of Electors Reported Voting in By-election
Two-thirds (66%) of electors who were aware of the by-election held on February 25, 2019, in their riding said they voted in it.
The likelihood of voting was higher among:
- Residents of Burnaby South (81%) compared to residents of Outremont (61%) and York–Simcoe (56%).
- Electors aged 55+ (77%) compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (55%), electors aged 25 to 34 (51%) and electors aged 35 to 54 (66%).
- Electors who completed university (70%) compared to electors with high school or less education (57%).
- Electors who are retired (80%) compared to electors who are employed (64%), unemployed (55%) and students (59%).
- Those who voted in the 2015 federal general election (71%) compared to those who did not vote (32%).
- Those who received their VIC (70%) compared to those who did not (47%).
- Electors who felt they were informed about how, when and where to vote (70%) compared to electors who felt they were uninformed (24%).
Everyday Life or Health Reasons Main Reasons for Not Voting in By-election
Among respondents who said they did not vote in the by-election (n = 342), 4 in 10 (41%) said they did not vote due to everyday life and health reasons. In addition, one in three (29%) reported not voting due to political reasons and 5% for reasons related to the electoral process. The "Other reasons" category included forgetting to vote, bad weather, the federal general election this year (e.g. will vote then, so there is no need to do so now) and a family emergency, among others.
The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the reasons why respondents did not vote during the February 25, 2019, federal by-election.
Figure 16: Main Reasons for Not Voting – Breakdown
Reason for Not Voting | % |
---|---|
Everyday life or health reason | 41 |
Too busy | 23 |
Out of town | 11 |
Illness or disability | 7 |
Political reason | 29 |
Not interested in politics | 10% |
Did not like candidates/parties/campaign | 8 |
Felt voting would not make a difference | 5 |
Lack of information about campaign issues and parties' positions | 3 |
Did not know who to vote for | 3 |
Electoral process –related reason | 5 |
Transportation problem/polling station too far | 2 |
Issues with VIC | 2 |
Lack of information about voting process (e.g. when/where to vote) | 1 |
Not on voters list | 0.3 |
Other reason | 24 |
Forgot to vote | 9 |
Bad weather | 8 |
Other reasons | 7 |
[Dk/nr: 2%].
Notable subgroup differences include:
- Residents of Outremont (16%) were more likely to say they did not vote because they are not interested in politics than residents of Burnaby South (3%).
- Men (17%) were more likely than women (6%) to say they did not vote because they were out of town. Women (13%) were more likely than men (3%) to point to bad weather as the reason they did not vote.
- Electors aged 55+ (17%) were more likely not to vote due to illness or disability compared to electors aged 25 to 34 (2%) and aged 35 to 54 (7%). Electors aged 18 to 24 (43%) were more likely not to vote because they were too busy compared to electors aged 25 to 34 (18%) and 35 to 54 (18%) as well as electors aged 55+ (17%). Compared to electors aged 55+ (2%), electors aged 25 to 34 (17%) and aged 35 to 54 (11%) were more likely to say they did not vote due to lack of interest in politics.
- Electors who completed university (8%) were more likely than electors with a high school education or less (2%) to say they did not vote because they felt that their vote would not make a difference. Electors with some post-secondary or college education (16%) were more likely than university graduates (5%) to point to a lack of interest in politics as the reason they did not vote.
- Electors who have a functional disability (24%) were more likely to have not voted because they did not like the candidates or parties than electors who do not have a functional disability (6%). Electors who never or sometimes have to limit their physical activities were more likely to have not voted due to being out of town (12% versus 3% of those who always or often have to limit their physical activities).
- Those who did not vote in the 2015 federal general election (24%) were more likely than those who voted to say they are not interested in politics (7%).
- Electors who felt uninformed about how, when and where to vote were more likely to cite disinterest in politics as the reason they did not vote (22% versus 8% of electors who felt informed).
Just over one-quarter of the respondents who said they were out of town (n = 35)Footnote 4 during the election were away due to work commitments (28%), while almost two-thirds (64%) were away for personal reasons. The vast majority (92%) of those who were out of town during the election had previously planned their trip.
Of the respondents who were too busy to vote (n = 72), just over half (54%) said they simply had other priorities that day. One-quarter (25%) had unexpected plans that deterred them from voting, and the rest (16%) said they do not have time in their daily schedule to vote.
Electors Were Aware of Common Voting Methods
A split-sample approach was used to test questions designed to measure electors' knowledge of current voting methods. One sample of respondents (n = 615; split sample 1) was asked, in an open-ended manner, to identify the current ways that electors can vote in a federal election. The other sample (n = 587; split sample 2) was asked a set of two questions. First, they were asked how someone can vote in a federal election, and then they were asked whether there are ways to cast a ballot ahead of time (see precise wording of questions in the graph below).
As the graph below indicates, both formulations yielded similar results overall. The one noteworthy difference is that the second formulation resulted in a higher proportion of respondents saying they do not know (specifically, 8% responded this way to the first question in the set and 15% to the second question).
Notable subgroup differences include the following:Footnote 5
- Awareness of the possibility of voting at a polling station on election day was higher among:
- 18-to-24-year-old electors (92%) compared to electors aged 55+ (82%).
- Electors with a university degree (89%) compared to those with high school or less education (80%).
- Students (96%) compared to employed (86%) and retired (82%) electors.
- Awareness of the possibility of voting at an advance polling station was higher among:
- Residents of Outremont (69%) compared to residents of York–Simcoe (55%) and Burnaby South (60%).
- Electors aged 55+ (67%), 35 to 54 (67%) and 25 to 34 (62%) compared to electors aged 18 to 24 years (37%).
- Electors who completed university (73%) and who completed college or some university (58%) compared to electors with high school or less education (42%).
- Electors who voted in the by-election (67%) compared to those who did not (54%) and electors who voted in the 2015 federal general election (67%) compared to those who did not (46%).
- Awareness of the possibility of voting by mail was higher among:
- Residents of Outremont (22%) compared to residents of York–Simcoe (13%).
- Male electors (20%) compared to female electors (14%).
- Electors who completed university (22%) compared to electors with college or some post-secondary education (16%) and electors with high school or less education (10%).
- Awareness of the possibility of voting at an Elections Canada office, at home or at mobile polls was higher among residents of Outremont. Specifically:
- 7% of residents of Outremont said electors could vote at an Elections Canada office compared to 3% of residents of York–Simcoe.
- 6% of residents of Outremont said electors could vote at home compared to 1% of residents of York–Simcoe and 1% of residents of Burnaby South.
- 4% of residents of Outremont said electors could vote at mobile polls compared to 1% of residents of Burnaby South.
Additionally:
- Electors who did not vote in the by-election (12%) were more likely to say they did not know how electors can vote compared to those who voted (7%).
- Electors who never or sometimes have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue were more likely to know that electors can vote at home than those who often or always have to limit their physical activities (3% compared to 1%).
Three-Quarters Voted at a Polling Station on Election Day
Three-quarters (75%) of electors who said they voted in the by-election reported doing so at a polling station on election day, while one-quarter (24%) reported going to an advance polling station to vote. Very few reported voting at an Elections Canada office, by mail or at home.
There were no significant differences by riding in the method electors used to vote.
Electors who voted on election day were more likely to be:
- Between the ages of 35 and 54 (80%) than aged 55+ (70%).
- Those with some post-secondary education or who completed college (78%) than university graduates (70%).
Electors who voted at an advance polling station were more likely to be:
- Aged 55+ (28%) than aged 35 to 54 (19%).
- Retired (30%) than employed (22%).
- University graduates (29%) than college graduates or those who completed some post-secondary education (21%).
Voter Identification
Widespread Awareness of Identification Requirements
A split-sample approach was used to measure awareness of identification requirements for voting. Traditionally, post-electoral surveys ask respondents whether or not they need proof of identity to vote, and then the question is repeated for proof of address. In previous post-electoral surveys, this formulation resulted in very high awareness levels for both requirements. However, survey pre-tests suggested that some respondents did not perceive a difference between the two (e.g. between proof of address and proof of identity). Thus, a second version of this question was developed, asking respondents whether, to the best of their knowledge, electors need proof of identity, proof of address, both or none. The two formulations were compared using the aforementioned split-sample experiment.
As has been the case with previous surveys, the first formulation found that the vast majority of respondents think that electors have to present proof of identity (95%) or proof of address (92%) in order to vote in a Canadian election. Of those asked the second formulation, nearly 8 in 10 (79%) correctly responded that both proof of identity and proof of address are required to vote in a Canadian federal election. A total of 17% indicated that only proof of identity was needed, 2% that only proof of address was needed and less than 1% that neither was needed.
The results of this split-sample test confirm those of the three previous by-election survey results.Footnote 6 Furthermore, these results confirm that the new formulation leads to results that better reflect respondents' grasp of identification requirements.
The likelihood of saying that electors must provide proof of both identity and address was higher among the following subgroups:Footnote 7
- Those who voted in the 2015 federal general election (85%) compared to those who did not vote (72%).
- Those who voted in the by-election (87%) compared to those who did not (78%).
- Electors who received their VIC (85%) compared to those who did not (70%).
There were no significant differences by riding in voter identification awareness.
Virtually All Voters Found It Easy to Meet Identification Requirements
Virtually all respondents who voted in the by-election found it easy to meet the identification requirements, with the vast majority (92%) describing it as very easy.
The likelihood of saying it was very easy to meet the identification requirements was higher among:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (96%) and Burnaby South (94%) compared to residents of Outremont (85%).
- University graduates (94%) than college educated electors or electors with some post-secondary education (89%).
Voter Experience
Vast Majority of Voters Found It Easy to Vote
More than 9 in 10 (96%) respondents who voted in the by-election said it was at least somewhat easy to vote, including 84% who said it was very easy.
The following subgroups were more likely to say it was very easy to vote:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (91%) and Burnaby South (86%) compared to Outremont (76%).
- Electors aged 55+ (88%) and 35 to 54 (87%) compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (70%).
- Retired (91%) and employed (86%) electors compared to students (57%).
- Electors who do not have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (86%) compared to those who do (68%).
Virtually All Agreed That Facilities Were Convenient to Access and Suitable, and Had Enough Signs
As is the case with other by-election surveys, nearly everyone surveyed who voted in the by-election said the polling station, advance polling station or Elections Canada office was a convenient distance from their home (96%), the facility was suitable (97%) and there were enough signs within the facility to help them find where to go to vote (95%).
The likelihood of saying the polling station was a convenient distance from their home was higher among residents of York–Simcoe (99%) compared to residents of Outremont (96%) and Burnaby South (94%).
The likelihood of having difficulty reaching the polling station was higher among:
- Residents of Outremont (8%) compared to residents of York–Simcoe (3%).
- Female electors (8%) compared to male electors (3%).
- Electors aged 25 to 34 (14%) compared to those aged 18 to 24 (1%).
- Electors with a functional disability (15%) compared to those who never or sometimes have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (5%).
Most Voters Voted in Afternoon or Evening
A total of 79% of all voters surveyed (n = 802) reported voting between noon and 8:30 p.m.
Of the voters who voted on election day (n = 588), one in five (21%) reported doing so in the morning (from the opening of the polls until noon), 27% said they voted in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.) and nearly half (47%) claimed to have voted in the evening (from 4 p.m. until the close of polls).
Notes: Election day hours were from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
There were no significant differences by riding when it came to what time of day voters voted.
Seven in 10 (71%) of those who voted at an advance polling station (n = 214) on February 15, 16, 17 and 18, 2019, reported doing so in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.). The single greatest proportion of these voters (27%) said they voted between noon and 1 p.m.
Note: Advance polling stations were open from noon to 8 p.m. on February 15, 16, 17 and 18, 2019.
Majority of Voters Took Five Minutes or Less to Vote
Three-quarters (75%) of all respondents who voted in the by-election said voting took them five minutes or less, with most of the rest saying it took them somewhere between 6 and 15 minutes.
Among those who voted at an advance polling station, 62% said it took them less than five minutes to vote. In comparison, 79% of those who voted on election day indicated that it took them less than five minutes to vote.
A full 97% of voters found the time taken to vote to be reasonable. The likelihood of saying the time taken to vote was reasonable was higher among residents of York–Simcoe (99%) compared to residents of Outremont (96%).
Virtually All Voters Were Satisfied with Elections Canada Staff
Nearly everyone (99%) who voted in the by-election was satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff (with 87% saying they were very satisfied).
The likelihood of being very satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff was higher among:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (93%) than among residents of Burnaby South (86%) and Outremont (85%).
- Those who never or sometimes have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (89%) compared to those who often or always have to limit their daily activities (78%).
Virtually all voters were satisfied with the service they received in their chosen official language.
Strong and Widespread Satisfaction with Voting Experience
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (97%) were satisfied with their overall voting experience (with 80% saying they were very satisfied).
The following subgroups were more likely to be very satisfied with their voting experience:
- Residents of York–Simcoe (86%) compared to residents of Outremont (76%).
- Voters with high school or less education (88%) compared to those with college or some post-secondary education (77%).
Fairness and Trust
Most Thought Elections Canada Ran By-election Fairly
Two variations of a question about the fairness of how Elections Canada runs federal by-elections were asked of respondents. Half were asked the following question: "Thinking about the February 25, 2019, federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election ...?" The other half was asked, "Thinking about federal by-elections in general, would you say that Elections Canada runs elections ...?"
The more specific formulation (i.e. focusing on the specific by-election) found a substantial majority of respondents (85%) thinking that Elections Canada ran the election fairly (with 65% saying very fairly) and a relatively high proportion of respondents who did not know (12%). The more general formulation resulted in a larger majority (93%) saying that Elections Canada runs elections fairly (65% saying very fairly) and a noticeably lower proportion of electors saying they did not know (6%). This is the same effect that was evident in the previous post by-election survey.
Regardless of formulation, residents of Burnaby South (91% specific formulation and 97% general formulation) were more likely than residents of Outremont (82% and 87%, respectively) to say that Elections Canada ran the by-election in their riding fairly.
Majority Trusted Accuracy of By-election Results
A split-sample approach was also used to survey respondents about trust in the accuracy of the by-election results. As in previous waves of the survey, respondents were asked, "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding?" In the current wave of the survey, a subset of respondents (n = 589) was asked a similar question: "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results?," but it was prefaced by the following preamble: "At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada."
As the accompanying graph indicates, both formulations of the question yielded similar overall results. However, respondents who were asked the question without the preamble, and with "your riding" explicitly identified, were more likely to express a very high level of trust (63%) than those who were asked the version prefaced by the preamble but without "your riding" explicitly identified (55%). This result is consistent with the result from the previous by-election.
Q37a [LEFT]. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding? Is it ...? Base: n = 613: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q37b [RIGHT]. At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results? Is it ...? Base: n = 589. SPLIT SAMPLE
The following subgroups were less likely to trust the accuracy of the election results:Footnote 8
- Residents of York–Simcoe (86%) than residents of Outremont (93%) and Burnaby South (93%).
- Those who did not vote in the federal general election (80%) compared to those who did vote (92%).
The following subgroups were more likely to have a very high level of trust in the accuracy of the election results:
- Male electors (65%) than female electors (54%).
- Electors aged 55+ (66%) and 35 to 54 (62%) compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (42%).
- Electors with a university degree (68%) versus 51% of those who completed college or some post-secondary education and 56% of those with high school or less.
- Retired electors (70%) compared to employed electors (57%) and students (50%).
- Those aware of the by-election (61% versus 32% of those who were not aware) and who voted in it (65% versus 52% of those who did not vote in the by-election).
- Electors who felt informed about how, when and where to vote (63% versus 39% of those who did not feel informed).
Footnote 1 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 2 Post-election surveys following previous by-elections (October 23, 2017; December 11, 2017; June 18, 2018; and December 3, 2018) also included this split-sample test.
Footnote 3 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 4 Exercise caution when interpreting these results due to the smaller sample size.
Footnote 5 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 6 By-election surveys were conducted following by-elections held on October 23, 2017; December 11, 2017; June 18, 2018; and December 3, 2018.
Footnote 7 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 8 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.